The Peckham Playbook: A Decade Later

In 2015, a foundational analysis published on Medium established a leading indicator for London property yields: the Coffee-to-Chicken Ratio (CtC). The original dataset accurately modeled the rapid capital appreciation of SE15 (Peckham), tracking a demographic shift that traditional real estate models failed to detect.

We are building directly on that thesis. The Coffee-to-Chicken (CtC) Ratio V2 tracks the friction between Phase 2 Gentrification and Legacy Economic Drag. We go beyond simple coffee-vs-chicken counts, weighting a broader basket of cultural and economic signals against a strict property value ceiling. If artisanal density is accelerating while property prices remain below the London baseline, the algorithm flags a Breakout district.

How the Math Works

1. The Artisanal Power (Numerator): We track independent coffee shops, but apply a 1.5x weight to Phase 2 cultural indicators like sourdough bakeries, natural wine bars, and craft taprooms.
2. The Legacy Drag (Denominator): We track legacy fast food, but apply a heavy 1.5x penalty to businesses that extract local wealth, specifically betting shops, pawnbrokers, and vape shops. (Note: A +1 smoothing factor is applied to prevent statistical errors in fully gentrified areas with zero legacy retail.)
3. The Price Cap: A strict ceiling is enforced. Any postcode with a median property price at or above £600,000 is automatically classified as Established, regardless of its cultural score. This filters out completed gentrification cycles, isolating only the districts where the property discount is still intact.